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Doubts About Overall Size of Brazil Soybean Harvest

Doubts About Overall Size of Brazil Soybean Harvest
Aprosoja Brasil, a grain producer group, claims that subsidized U.S. farm support deprives Brazilian farmers of $1 billion a year in soybean revenues. (Image-giovanefoto/iStock/Thinkstock)

Dry weather appears to be having an impact on the potential Brazilian soybean harvest, at least according to some market watchers. A weak El Nino pattern brought dry weather to central and southern Brazil in December. The below-normal rainfall combined with seasonally hot temperatures has led to some net-drying conditions in the key soybean producing states of Mato Grosso  and Goias.

A Farm Journal report says those two states produce roughly 40 percent of the country’s soybean output. The net-drying conditions are seen by market experts as trimming the region’s potential soybean harvest. Last year, the Brazil soybean harvest hit a record number, coming in at 120.3 million metric tons.

The December World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates raised its latest projection to 122 million metric tons for this year’s harvest. The recent weather pattern may prevent that number from going up between now and harvest. Mostly dry forecasts through the first half of January coincide with the key production stages of flowering and early pod-filling.

A potential downward revision to Brazil soybean output would likely cause soybean prices to respond in spite of more-than-ample supplies around the globe.

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