Tag Archives: CME Group

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and CHICAGO,  /PRNewswire/ — Ag producer sentiment rebounded in June as farmers’ expressed a more optimistic outlook towards the future of the ag economy. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer, based on a mid-month survey of 400 agricultural producers across the U.S., increased to a reading of 126 in June, up 25 points from May.

Increases were also seen in both of the barometer’s sub-indices. While the Index of Current Conditions only saw a modest increase, up 13 points from May, to a reading of 97, the Index of Future Expectations jumped 33 points, to a reading of 141 in June.

“This year farmers have faced an extremely wet planting season and uncertainty surrounding trade discussions, however, a crop price rally coupled with USDA’s announcement of its 2019 MFP program and Congress’ passage of the Disaster Aid Bill made farmers more optimistic,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “While this combination provided a boost to a struggling ag economy, it remains a challenging economic environment for farmers.”

In June, the prospect of large prevented plantings, along with concerns that delayed planting of corn and soybeans would impact yields, led USDA to forecast tighter supplies than previously expected. Supply concerns were a key factor behind a rally in corn and soybean prices that took place from mid-May to mid-June when the June barometer survey was conducted. For example, nearby CBOT corn futures prices were up 28 percent and nearby CBOT soybean futures prices were up 12 percent, both compared to their mid-May lows. The USDA also announced it would provide another round of MFP payments on planted acres of a large number of covered crops, including corn and soybeans.

In light of the announcement and the historic corn and soybean planting delays this spring, producers who planted corn or soybeans in 2018 were asked whether the MFP announcement affected their decision to take or not take a prevented planting payment this year. Ten percent of corn and soybean producers said the announcement did impact their prevented planting decision making and one out of five farmers within that group said they intended to plant more corn, while one out of ten farmers within that group said they intended to plant more soybeans, because of the MFP program.

One of the big question marks in the 2019 outlook is how many acres will be enrolled in Federal Crop Insurance’s prevented planting program. Nearly one-third (32 percent) of corn/soybean farmers in the survey said they intended to take prevented planting payments on some of their corn acres and of those who intend to take a prevented planting payment, just over half (51 percent) said they intend to take prevented planting on more than 15 percent of their intended corn acreage.

Lastly, farmers were slightly more optimistic regarding the resolution and impact of the ongoing trade dispute with China. From March through May, the percentage of producers expecting a beneficial outcome to the trade dispute declined from 77 percent to 65 percent; yet, on the June survey, that percentage rose slightly to 69 percent. Farmers were also asked whether they believe the dispute will be resolved by September 1. In mid-June, 32 percent of producers expected it to be settled by early September, whereas just 20 percent expected the dispute to be settled by July 1 when this question was posed in mid-May.

Read the full June Ag Economy Barometer report at https://purdue.ag/agbarometer. This month’s report includes more information about farmer sentiment regarding farmland values and large farm investments. The site also offers additional resources – such as past reports, charts and survey methodology – and a form to sign up for monthly barometer email updates and webinars. Each month, Dr. Mintert also provides a short video analysis of the barometer results, available at https://purdue.ag/barometervideo.

The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and AGECFTEX.

CME Group, the world’s leading and most diverse derivatives marketplace, reached average daily volume (ADV) of 23.9 million contracts during May 2019, up 19% from May 2018. Open interest (OI) at the end of May was 143 million contracts, up 24% from year-end 2018 and up 14% from May 2018. OI reached a record 143.5 million contracts on May 23, 2019.

Equity Index volume averaged 4.2 million contracts per day in May 2019, up 61% from May 2018. Highlights include:

  • Micro E-mini equity index futures, launched May 6, averaged 489,000 contracts per day in May, and traded nearly 9.3 million contracts in total volume – the most successful product launch ever at CME Group
  • Record Bitcoin futures ADV, up 246% to 13,600 contracts
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures and options ADV increased 44% to 2.7 million contracts
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures and options ADV grew 66% to 594,000 contracts
  • Mini $5 Dow futures and options ADV increased 33% to 268,000 contracts
  • E-mini Russell 2000 futures and options ADV rose 45% to 149,000 contracts
  • Nikkei 225 (yen) futures ADV grew 39% to 45,000 contracts

Options volume averaged 5 million contracts per day in May 2019, up 40% from May 2018, and reached its second-highest monthly ADV ever. Highlights include:

  • Record overall daily options volume of 10 million contracts set May 31
  • Record 7.7 million Interest Rate options contracts traded on May 31, with a record 3.9 million traded electronically
  • Record Eurodollar options volume of 5.2 million contracts and OI of 64.4 million contracts on May 31
  • Record Agricultural options ADV, up 50% to 453,000 contracts
  • Interest Rate options ADV grew 49% to 3.4 million contracts
  • Equity Index options ADV increased 39% to 808,000 contracts
  • Metals options ADV rose 9% to 59,000 contracts

Agricultural volume averaged 1.9 million contracts per day in May 2019, up 31% from May 2018. Highlights include all-time record volume of 3.2 million contracts set May 31 and:

  • Record Corn futures and options ADV, up 78% to 861,000 contracts
  • Grain and Oilseeds futures and options ADV increased 34% to 1.7 million contracts
  • Soybean futures and options ADV rose 9% to 321,000 contracts
  • Livestock futures and options ADV grew 15% to 191,000 contracts
  • Hard Red Winter Wheat futures and options ADV increased 19% to 69,000 contracts

Interest Rate volume averaged 13.8 million contracts per day in May 2019, up 19% from May 2018, and reached its second-highest monthly ADV ever. Highlights include:

  • Record Ultra Treasury Bond futures OI of 1.3 million contracts on May 29
  • Record 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures ADV, up 43% to 1.2 million contracts
  • Record Ultra 10-Year Treasury Note futures ADV, up 27% to 327,000 contracts
  • Record 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note options ADV, up 48% to 235,000 contracts
  • Record SOFR futures OI of 168,000 contracts on May 31
  • Record SOFR futures ADV of 32,000 contracts, up 41% from the prior month
  • U.S. Treasury futures and options ADV increased 14% to 7.9 million contracts
  • Eurodollar futures and options ADV grew 26% to 5.5 million contracts
  • Fed Fund futures ADV rose 30% to 431,000 contracts
  • Weekly Treasury options ADV increased 102% to 286,000 contracts
  • Ultra 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note futures and options ADV grew 27% to 327,000 contracts
  • Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond futures and options ADV increased 17% to 314,000 contracts

Energy volume averaged 2.5 million contracts per day in May 2019, down 6% from May 2018. Highlights include:

  • Record Brent Crude Oil futures OI of 257,000 contracts on May 29
  • Gasoline futures and options ADV increased 5% to 224,000 contracts
  • Brent Crude Oil futures ADV rose 45% to 146,000 contracts

Metals volume averaged 582,000 contracts per day in May 2019, down 14% from May 2018. Highlights include:

  • Gold options ADV increased 10% to 51,000 contracts
  • Platinum futures and options ADV grew 6% to 19,000 contracts
  • Copper options ADV rose 141% to 2,300 contracts
  • Ferrous futures and options ADV increased 120% to 1,600 contracts

Foreign Exchange volume averaged 822,000 contracts per day in May 2019, down 25% from April 2018. Highlights include:

  • Japanese yen futures ADV rose 6% to 12,500 contracts
  • Brazilian real futures and options ADV increased 8% to 8,500 contracts

BrokerTec fixed income trading activity highlights include:

  • European Repo average daily notional value increased 10% to €286 billion
  • U.S. Repo average daily notional value increased 15% to $263 billion

Footnote: To see CME Group daily over-the-counter (OTC) notional cleared volumes and open interest, monthly OTC notional cleared volumes and monthly total trade count, go to http://www.cmegroup.com/education/cme-volume-oi-records.html