The speed of the economic recovery will largely hinge on the availability, dissemination, and reach of COVID-19 vaccines, pushing a pent-up consumer demand to later in 2021. That’s according to a comprehensive year-ahead outlook report just issued from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange Division.
“The coming year will be a recovery year for most Americans and the businesses that make up the U.S. economy,” said Dan Kowalski, vice president of the Knowledge Exchange Division. “The early part of the year should look very different than the latter, but in total, economic growth should be about four percent, following a retreat of roughly four percent in 2020.”
The report lists several key factors that will shape agriculture and market sectors that serve rural communities. The largest factor is COVID-19, which will steer the global economy into 2021. Of all the major economies, China has recovered from COVID the quickest, while Europe has suffered the most.
CoBank said a post-COVID bounce will come to the U.S. next year, just not anytime soon. Other factors include monetary policy, a strong finish to 2020 in the U.S. farm economy, specialty crops, grain and farm-supply sectors, a biofuels recovery, dairy and animal protein, and more.