The Wall Street Journal collected 19 different commodity firms estimates ahead of the May 12 WASDE report from the world outlook board.
Given the recent drop in ethanol demand US corn ending stocks for May are a hot topic. The average analyst estimate see’s a 133 million bushel build from the April report. That would mean the US could have a stockpile of 2.225 billion bushels of corn. Analyst estimates do range as high as 2.392 billion bushels though. Soybeans and wheat are both expected to see a slight build from the April report, but some analysts do see the possibility of stocks actually dropping given the recent strong export demand. Looking out to 2020-2021 grain stockpiles corn continues to grow with the average analyst estimating the US will have a corn stockpile of over 3 billion bushels in just one year. Soybeans stay relatively unchanged year to year and wheat looks to drop by 100 million bushels compared to this year. World stockpile estimates for both 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 are similar to that of the US with a build up in corn month to month and a substantial build up of corn for next year.
So where is the 2020-2021 corn bushels coming from. Analysts are expecting US farmers to increase corn acres and still have a substantial yield. The average analysts estimate ahead of the report predicts the US corn crop to come in at 15.609 billion bushels. Nearly 2 billion more than the 2019 crop. Soybeans while possibly not gaining that many acres, outside of some that may have been prevent plant in 2019, still see a small build up in the estimated crop. The average analyst estimates that the US will have a soybean crop of 4.120 billion bushels up from 2019’s 3.558 billion bushels.
|US 19-20 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||May||Average||Range||USDA April|
|US 20-21 Stock Pile Millions of Bushels||May||Average||Range||USDA April|
|World Stockpiles19-20 Million Metric Tons||May||Average||Range||USDA April|
|World Stockpiles 20-21 Million Metric Tons||May||Average||Range||USDA April|
|US Corn & Soybean Production 2020 Millions of Bushels||May||Average||Range||USDA 2019|
|US Wheat Production Est. 2020||May||Average||Range||USDA 19-20|
|Hard Red Winter||754||678-830||833|
|Soft Red Winter||271||220-305||239|