USDA on Tuesday boosted exports for soybeans 50 million bushels (mb) but lowered corn exports 50 mb, despite high sales expectations because of recent trade deals.
USDA increased its forecast for soybean exports by 50 mb to 1.825 billion bushels (bb). Ending stocks, at 425 mb, declined from last month by a corresponding amount and fell within the range of pre-report expectations.
Corn exports were projected at 1.725 bb, down 50 mb from January.
USDA did bump up wheat exports up 25 mb from the January report, to 1 bb
USDA released its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Tuesday as well as its monthly Crop Production report. Traders were closely watching just how USDA might integrate projected exports to China for a few key commodities following the announcement last month of the phase-one trade deal with China that is meant, in part, to boost U.S. agricultural sales to China.
According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Tuesday’s U.S. ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and slightly bullish for soybeans and wheat; world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn and wheat, but somewhat bearish for soybeans.
You can access the full reports here:
— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…
— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…
The monthly corn production estimate for the 2019-20 crop was projected at 13.69 bb, the same as January, with a national average yield of 168 bushels per acre, also unchanged.
Exports were lowered 50 mb to 1.725 bb with USDA citing “the slow pace of shipments through January.” USDA increased domestic ethanol use by 50 mb as well, increasing use to 5.425 bb for ethanol for the 2019-20 crop.
Total corn use was projected at 14.07 bb, the same as January, and ending stocks were projected at 1.892 bb, also the same as January. That brings the stocks-to-use ration for the 2019-20 crop at 13.4%.
The average farm-gate price for the 2019-20 crop was pegged at $3.85 a bushel, also unchanged for January.
Globally, USDA slightly lowered global production by a fractional number, but increased global domestic demand by 1.81 million metric tons (mmt). Global ending stocks, less China, were dropped by 970,000 metric tons.
The corn stocks-to-use ratio for the 2019-20 crop year was 13.4%, unchanged from last month.
USDA forecast 2019-20 domestic ending stocks at 425 mb, a 50 mb decline from last month based on forecasts for corresponding increase in exports. The agency left production and other demand forecasts unchanged.
The national average farm gate price was lowered by a quarter to $8.75 per bushel.
Globally, USDA revised ending stocks upwards to 98.86 mmt a 2.19 mmt increase. Brazilian production forecasts climbed by 2 mmt to 125 mmt while Argentine production was left unchanged at 53 mmt.
Domestic soybean stocks-to-use for 2019-20 declined to 10.5% from last month’s 11.8% estimate.
Domestic 2019-20 wheat ending stocks were trimmed by 25 mb to 940 mb, a five-year low that came within analysts’ pre-report expectations. That change was driven entirely by an increase of 25 mb in wheat exports, from 975 mb in January to 1 bb in the February report. The agency cited “growing competitiveness in international markets” for that adjustment.
The average farmgate price for wheat was pegged at $4.55 per bushel, unchanged from the January report.
USDA tweaked global ending stocks to 288.03 mmt, just under last month’s estimate of 288.08 mmt and within analysts’ pre-report estimates.
Australian wheat production was left unchanged from the January estimate of 15.6 mmt, despite widespread fires and drought in the country. USDA also left Russian wheat exports at 34 mmt, despite reports that the Russian government would soon restrict exports.
Wheat stocks-to-use declined by 1.7 percentage points to 43.4%.
|WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2019-20|
|U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2019-20|
|WORLD ENDING STOCKS (million metric tons) 2019-20|