Lower close headed into the holiday. Winter weather slows harvest once again & what are the implications. South American weather & crop update. Driest soybean in the past 4 decades but the crops look great. Trade talks, USMCA-8 days left on the schedule. If there is a will there is a way. China talks. Strong cash basis for corn & beans-some post-harvest feels. 124 million bushels of corn in NE…a lot more left as you head north. Exports tighten in Brazil. USDA put out a notice for export sales reporting of livestock. ASF.
As the world continues to see losses due to African swine fever (ASF) swell in 2019, experts from Rabobank estimate that nearly 25% of the world’s pig herd (350 million head) could be gone by year’s end. Most recently, major ASF outbreaks in Romania and the Philippines have added to the costly total.
In a recent global ASF report from the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE), major losses were shown in Romania with 20,069 head and in the Philippines with 45,670 head. These losses represent the number of head killed by ASF or culled in infected farms or backyards only and not any depopulation efforts in control zones. This is OIE’s method of calculating global ASF losses moving forward.
Since the first ASF outbreak report in the Philippines, authorities there have deployed significant resources to support efforts to control the spread of the disease in the country. Notably, they have installed the country’s first modern and automated road bath disinfection facility for animal transport carrier vehicles and a biosecurity and quarantine checkpoint to curtail ASF spread. These actions will need to be coupled with hyper vigilance at the country’s ports, which have already intercepted several ASF-positive pork packages from China.
According to a recent report by the UK’s Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), Romania’s plight may be due to the identification of non-compliant holdings and the feeding of kitchen waste to pigs. This alone, however, cannot explain the sudden, significant increase in the number of outbreaks since summer. Favorable weather conditions for potential arthropod vectors (such as ticks) across the region could have accentuated the rapid dissemination of the virus over the summer. Human actions around harvesting and contact with wild boar also could be implicated.
Hong Kong, Bill in the Senate…how does that effect China Trade. Talks 3 b corn is still in the field, South American weather helping the crops. USDA to continue crop progress reports into the near future. Spread of ASF continues in China & beyond. The need for food to feed those in China
Weather trying to help the last of the harvest…colder temperatures moving in will solidify fields. Lower corn & soybeans. Is the China Phase one being pushed off till December? Odds are stronger it will be completed in 2019. Friday WASDE report. Brazil to get good rains. Propane shortages? ASF-China has reopened the door to Canadian hogs & purchases from Europe-needing meat.
Higher corn, lower beans & wheat. Harvest delays, South America crop progress, the latest on China-as conference has been suspended. What is in the deal & what isn’t. Market is taking it in stride call us when its done. Private estimates on crop progress will come out on Friday. In holding a pattern. Fed statement-how does that effect the trade. ASF. Rally in the cattle market.