Winter doldrums effecting the markets, trade war has no real incentives from China. Crop size & the USDA reports. Basis & its pressure on the elevators. South American Crop.
Grain elevators face significant challenges in the year ahead as they buy basis on corn, soybeans and wheat at the highest levels seen in years, according to a new report.
CoBank reports basis for the three major grains is significantly tighter across the country from strong end-user bids, limited pipeline supplies, and lack of farmer selling amid an uncertain fall harvest. A CoBank researcher says, “grain elevators are being compelled to offer farmers a range of incentives to sell bushels,” including lower rates on storage, free delayed pricing and free grain drying, all cutting into elevator margins.
Grain quality issues resulting from high moisture at harvest and frost damage on immature crops will also raise management costs for elevators, potentially resulting in greater losses to shrinkage and spoilage. A propane supply shortage in some regions is also driving up the cost of drying grain.
However, grain elevators also have an opportunity to improve margins in an otherwise stressful year, as basis will likely soften as more bushels come to market as harvest operations conclude.
We welcome Matt Bennett of AgMarket.Net to the Fontanelle Final Bell. Matt is from Windsor, IL
Covering basis & cash…worries about giving up ownership at year’s end. Looking into 2020 & how to market going into the new year. Crop progress report. Ethanol Markets…corn isn’t there so how you move & keep the bottom line. Will South America put pressure on us in 2020. Effects on the dollar for our grain trade.
Another solid week on the cash cattle. Could there be a correction headed our way? Any holiday pressure that might work into. How are cattle weights. Holcomb KS plant to start back up this week. How do you think the market react? Funds are long. Some red flags popping up. Hogs…way to cheap but China is playing a role in that. 10% of corn crop still in the field. Basis in corn market. China on again off again. December 15th…will we see changes before then? Mixed grain markets.
Markets closed early on Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. This year’s crop outcome-what will be harvested is about there-this could move the markets higher as reality sets in that all the crop won’t be out before 2020. How will this change the basis? Cash will win in the end. South American production-any issues heading into December. December 15th deadline looming with China-will they just continue to buy what they need? Corn exports saw some improvements this past week. Getting a final spike trade in the dairy industry. Still seeing some Chinese purchases for milk powder. Weeks snowstorms and upcoming weekend weather be of concern to the feeder cattle market?
Lower close headed into the holiday. Winter weather slows harvest once again & what are the implications. South American weather & crop update. Driest soybean in the past 4 decades but the crops look great. Trade talks, USMCA-8 days left on the schedule. If there is a will there is a way. China talks. Strong cash basis for corn & beans-some post-harvest feels. 124 million bushels of corn in NE…a lot more left as you head north. Exports tighten in Brazil. USDA put out a notice for export sales reporting of livestock. ASF.
How do the corn and soybean markets currently look?
Is the slow harvest pace having an impact on the markets?
Does the market care if a Trade deal is done with China
Do you think a trade deal with China will get done before the next round of Tariffs on December 15th?
What do you hear coming out of the BRICS meeting a couple of weeks ago in Brazil?
How does South American Weather look?
How does corn demand look?
How does soybean Demand look?
Where do you think the market goes from here?
Lower corn & beans for a Friday. Pre-holiday works going on. Look at the basis in the country. Ethanol is making some profits. Dry down late harvest issues. Export markets for both grain & livestock. Feeder cattle lead the way lower. Boxes took a drop which didn’t help the market.
Nice to have green on the screen even with bad trade news. Weekly crop progress report. Kansas Wheat condition. the corn market analysis going into next week & beyond. Lower U.S. dollar, Global plantings. Propane shortages continue with the need for harvest dry down. Thoughts of exports. Cattle is hitting some lofty levels. Holiday pressure begins.
Are the talks with China falling apart. Media play game? USMCA seems positive. Ethanol production 7th week higher…stocks lower. Brazil tariff quota for wheat. China & U.S. Poultry, ASF…