Tag Archives: beans

Factors still moving the markets include China as we move 7 days into that 30 day agreement.  Not a lot of movement talked about to this point.  Kind of leaves us on the fence & following technical.  Wheat continues to trek higher until today-but why is it going higher.  Current status of South American weather & crop progress.  Livestock market…Chinese holiday-sickness…people moving through the country.  ASF-is there concern with the week long holiday coming up for China?

 

Ag Secretary Sonny Perdue talked over the weekend about his willingness to make changes in National Ag Statistics Service methods of crop data collection.

A Farm Journal article says during 2019 and it’s many challenges, many farmers were openly questioning the crop projections that were coming from NASS throughout the year. Perdue admits that he had some concerns about their crop reports and the survey methods NASS uses. “In fact, it was kind of paranoia in light of all the prevented planting and other kinds of things that were falling on us,” he recalled. “We got a little conspiratorial too, thinking NASS was also out to get us.” He thinks the NASS numbers that took the market by surprise last June might have been more correct than the market ultimately was in its reaction.

However, that doesn’t mean Perdue thinks the methodology for estimating crop size couldn’t be improved. “We’re going to get better,” Perdue says. “If you’ve got an idea about how we can better use electronics, or maybe an app for better surveys, we’d love to hear about it. We’re open to the kind of ideas of using modern technology to get you the best data that you can use to make plans for your farm.”

Quiet start with the livestock.  Tone of the beef is just okay…macro’s have Brad concerned just a bit.  Cash cattle.  Average weights are disturbing.  Year on year comparisons come in higher.  Is the market tired for the cattle?  Hogs continue to torment.   New virus in China-how is that going to affect the markets & heading into the Chinese New Year Celebration.  Beans took it in the shorts-is it weather in South America, corn did better but problems talked about it in a variety including wheat.

 

Crazy week of reports.  From the January 10th report, Phase One, USMCA…but still beans had a rough week.  Shows volatility & one needs to be prepared.  Last 60 days we have been in a tight range.   Ethanol margins remain tight…China even mentioned ethanol in Phase One.  South American weather & current harvest.  Hogs could see the boost from the trade deals.  There is money to be made in the cattle market right now.

Tomorrow’s signing day with China.  A lot of stories about what be included.  WTO guidelines.  Chinese imports.  Bird flu update for China.  Turkey’s in Northern Hungary as well.  We continue to see tight ethanol supplies.  Weather updates for South America.  Corn harvest 2% done in Brazil. Global wheat crop.  Livestock market & what China’s hog market looks like.  Some short term technical on cattle.

 

Higher corn, lower beans & wheat.  Quiet day in the market trade. China needs help…food for both people & livestock.  Will we see any fireworks from Wednesday’s signing?  Bird flu in China with swans.  Ethanol margins remain tights.  Weekly export numbers on the softer side.  Why are we seeing lower numbers in the livestock?  Chinese New Year Celebrations.

 

USDA WASDE Report.  Nothing friendly on the grain report.  Unicorn type of day!  Brad explains.  How do the basis numbers look?  Ethanol/DDG’s & China.    Cattle prices were higher with the hopes that the cash would see some higher Friday trade numbers.  Macro’s for the cattle not great.  Middle of a big fund role.  Negative side of the market is the cut-out value-cutting back on Saturday kills.  No real threat in the weather-does that make you nervous?  Hogs still caught in the same trading range.

 

OMAHA (DTN) — USDA on Friday bumped up corn yield and soybean production while showing overall lower quarterly stocks for corn, soybeans and wheat from the same period a year ago.

Corn production was forecast at 13.69 billion bushels (bb) with a national average yield of 168 bushels per acre (bpa), 1 bpa higher than last month’s forecast.

USDA increased final 2019 soybean production to 3.558 bb, up from 3.550 bb in the December report, a surprise to analysts who expected to see the effects of the historically challenging production season continue to ripple through the country’s soybean supplies.

Corn quarterly stocks were down 5% from the same time last year while soybean stocks were down 13% from the same period last year.

According to DTN Lead Analyst Todd Hultman, Friday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for corn, neutral for soybeans and wheat; the 2019-20 world ending stocks estimates were neutral for corn, soybeans and wheat; the Grain Stocks report was roughly neutral for corn and soybeans and slightly bullish for wheat.

Check this page throughout the morning for important highlights from the reports and commentary from our analysts on what the numbers mean.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Farmers planted 30.8 ma to winter wheat this fall, compared to 31.2 ma last year and the average pre-report estimate of 30.7 ma. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record.

USDA said area seeded to hard red winter wheat is expected to total 21.8 ma, down 3% from 2019.

Soft red winter wheat area, at 5.64 ma, is up 8% from last year.

Farmers planted 3.37 million acres to white winter wheat, a 4% decrease.

In Kansas and Oklahoma, USDA said farmers planted 27,000 acres to canola, 58% below last year. If realized, planted acreages in both states would represent a new record low.

You can also access the full reports here:

— Crop Production: https://www.nass.usda.gov/…

— World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CROP PRODUCTION

Corn:

USDA forecast corn production at 13.69 bb with a national average yield of 168 bpa, 1 bpa higher than last month’s forecast.

The agency lowered its harvested acreage estimate by about 300,000 acres, which offset some of the increased production from a slightly higher average yield. The 13.69 bb production forecast is up 31 mb from last month’s estimate and at the high end of pre-report expectations.

USDA’s estimate of a 3.558-bb soybean crop for 2019 is a 20% drop from 2018’s crop of 4.428 bb.

Soybeans:

To reach its 2019 estimate, USDA adjusted the 2019 average soybean yield up half a bushel from the December report to 47.4 bpa, based on increases in Illinois and Indiana. Despite the slight jump upward, that average yield still stands 3.2 bushels below the 2018 crop.

Harvested acres were adjusted down 600,000 acres from the December report to 75 ma, down 14% from last year, with the largest decreases coming from the Dakotas.

WASDE

Corn:

Domestic ending stocks for the 2019-20 crop year declined 18 bb from last month’s forecast to 1.89 bb, but the agency made some fairly large changes in its forecast for use. USDA increased its forecast for feed and residual use by 250 mb, which it said was based on its latest estimates from the Grain Stocks report. USDA cut the corn export forecast by 75 mb and food, seed and industrial use by 20 mb. The national average farm gate price was unchanged from last month at $3.85 per bushel.

Globally, ending stocks for 2019-20 declined to 297.8 million metric tons (mmt), a 2.75 mmt decline from last month that was in line with the analysts’ forecast.

Soybeans:

U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2019-20 were left at 475 mb in the January report. The agency left supply and demand almost completely untouched from December, only dropping beginning stocks to 909 mb, boosting production slightly and cutting imports by 5 mb.

The average U.S. soybean farmgate price was increased 15 cents to 9 dollars per bushel, reflecting stronger soybean oil prices.

Globally, USDA left South American soybean production untouched, with Brazil’s estimate at 123 mmt and Argentina’s 53 mmt. Global ending stocks were pegged at 96.7 mmt, a slight upward adjustment from December’s estimate of 96.4 mmt. Major changes in supply/demand.

Wheat:

USDA forecast 2019-20 domestic ending stocks for wheat at 965 mb, a 9 mb decline from last month’s estimate. The change was due to a 10 mb increase in feed and residual use and a 1 mb decline in use for seed. The national average farm gate price was $4.55 per bushel, unchanged from last month.

Globally, USDA revised ending stocks down by 1.42 mmt. USDA lowered foreign production in Russia by 1 mmt and in Australia 0.5 mmt. It also raised production forecasts for the European Union by 0.5 mmt.

QUARTERLY GRAIN STOCKS

Quarterly “disappearance” or usage for soybeans and wheat were both higher from the same period last year running from September to November while corn usage was down slightly.

Corn disappearance was pegged at 4.52 bb, down just slightly from 4.54 bb over the same quarter last year. Corn stored from September to November totaled 11.4 bb, down 5% from the same period last year and right in line with the average pre-report estimates. Of total stocks, USDA reported 7.18 bb on the farm, down 4% from the same period last year. Off-farm stocks was pegged at 4.21 bb, down 6% from a year ago. On-farm storage in states such as North and South Dakota may be a little misleading because of unharvested acres, which USDA still brands as being stored on the farm.

Soybean usage from September to November amounted to 1.22 bb, up 8% from the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on Dec. 1 totaled 3.25 bb, slightly above the pre-report average from analysts and down 13% from the same period last year.

On-farm storage was pegged at 1.53 bb, down 21% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were reported at 1.73 bb, down 5% from last year.

Wheat usage for the quarter was pegged at 512 million bushels (mb), up 35% from the same period last year. All-wheat stored on Dec. 1 totaled 1.83 bb, lower than the pre-report average estimate and 9% below last year’s stored crop. Off-farm stocks were listed at 1.31 bb, down 13% from last year. On-farm stocks were estimated at 519 mb, up 3% from last year.

WINTER WHEAT SEEDINGS

Farmers planted 30.8 ma to winter wheat this fall, compared to 31.2 ma last year and the average pre-report estimate of 30.7 ma. This represents the second lowest United States acreage on record.

USDA said area seeded to hard red winter wheat is expected to total 21.8 ma, down 3% from 2019.

Soft red winter wheat area, at 5.64 ma, is up 8% from last year.

Farmers planted 3.37 million acres to white winter wheat, a 4% decrease.

In Kansas and Oklahoma, USDA said farmers planted 27,000 acres to canola, 58% below last year. If realized, planted acreages in both states would represent a new record low.

Pre-Report trade. If the wheat is leading higher on the S&D Report the dollar will have a reaction. Trade might not be worried about the corn.  bullish surprise in the report though could be the corn, seeing where we are at in harvest.   Phase Two comes after elections.  Phase one is on track for January 15th.  Iran still being talked about.  World Supply Demands with South America.  Winter seeding for the wheat brought to the front of the classroom.  USMCA.  Wall Street Journal & the tide turning.  Cattle market & waiting for the cash continues to be on the quiet side.

China…they are scrapping their ethanol program & what does that mean?  GCI China talks of lifting duties on DDG’s.  Ethanol mandate by 2020, was never bought into.  Due to weather, the USDA report delayed until Friday along with the WASDE report.  Political talk making national news, is the current issues with Iran having any effect on the markets?  ASF hits again in Bulgaria.  Consolidation in the cattle as they wait for the cash to fully develop.