Looking at the frustration of turning the corner on COVID & then a trade war starts picking up. White House puts out 16-page release in regards to China. Will we see counter measures? Is China to be blamed for what is happening globally as we see countries increase pressure on China & China in turn puts tariffs in place. Torpedo’s Taiwan & soybeans. Seasonally tendencies for corn. Heading into a holiday weekend…what tone could we see come Tuesday? Strong bean shipments out of Brazil.
As we start moving towards the new norm, so does the markets. Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics looks at the return to demand & what is causing trade friction. There has been a recovery on crude oil. A special report on China is looked at along with concerns worries of breaking trade agreements.
According to three ethanol-industry sources and shipping data, a rare U.S. ethanol shipment will arrive in China very soon. Reuters says that may be the first ethanol shipment to hit China since the two countries struck a trade deal earlier this year.
China recently waived some additional tariffs on almost 700 American products, including ethanol, to support more purchases of U.S. farm goods to help meet its obligations in the Phase One trade deal. Since China made the move, the ethanol industry has been watching for signs of renewed trade in the biofuel. Tariffs on U.S. fuel ethanol were as high as 70 percent after Beijing upped some retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports in the back-and-forth trade dispute with Washington, D.C.
A slump in fuel demand brought on by COVID-19 led to an oversupply of ethanol that caused prices to bottom out, forcing producers to slash their production amounts. One of the three sources to tell Reuters about the shipment says the vessel was carrying ethanol that originated in the United States and had been resold to China, likely from a seller in Saudi Arabia. A trader based in China tells Reuters that, “People are looking to import fuel ethanol from overseas as prices in northeastern China have risen in the past few days.”
President Trump spoke to the farmers today. How are his comments going to have an effect on the markets today & in the days to come? Is the world starting to turn against China & will it help to straighten things out? Politics involved muddies the waters. Is there some stabilization happening in the ethanol market? The President also suggested not taking beef from other countries. A quiet day in the cattle market. Boxed beef dropped again on the day. Hogs saw a downtrend for a Tuesday.
Why was the Monday trade so quiet? Is it the calm before the storm? Dow was up, talk of China & trade once is making the news. Is the bans on foreign trade circling back to COVID-19 & China. Cooler temps will that have any effect on the crop progress tonight? Australia gets a tariff put in place on beef from China, China turns around and buys blueberries & barley from the U.S. will this lead to more buys? Higher cattle lower boxed beef. Even though still behind on processing movement more cattle are moving through the plants. Nearby hogs lower dealing with China & taking pork…not still enough to make a dent.
Analysts already expect China to be unable to meet its obligations under the Phase One trade deal it signed with the U.S. this year. Now, the relationship between the two largest economies in the world appears to be in trouble.
President Donald Trump seemed to add fuel to the fire when he told the Fox Business Network that he has no interest in speaking to Chinese President Xi Jinping right now. He even went as far as admitting the possibility of cutting ties with the Asian nation. Reuters says the U.S. president is very disappointed with China’s failure to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, noting that the pandemic cast a pall over his Phase One deal with China, which was previously hailed as a major achievement.
“They should never have let this happen,” Trump says. “So, I make a great trade deal and now I say this doesn’t feel the same to me. The ink was barely dry, and the plague came over. And it doesn’t feel the same to me.” Trump’s irritation extended to the Chinese president, who Trump one said he had a good relationship with. “Right now, I don’t want to speak to him,” Trump told Fox. “There are many things we could do. We could even cut off the whole relationship.”
Planting progress tied in with the WASDE report made for an interesting week of trading. Darin Fessler with Lakefront Futures talks about the feel and emotion that is tied into the market right now. Then add the rumors of another fight building up between the U.S. & China, and that tops off the week in this edition of Trading Bits & Bytes.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced he’s forming a Republican “China Task Force,” citing Chinese ownership of Smithfield Foods as part of the reason behind the move.
The Hagstrom Report says McCarthy found it interesting that “China owns a processing plant in South Dakota” and wondered if that could be a challenge for the U.S. food supply. McCarthy says the task force will include representatives from 10 congressional committees and will look deeper into the U.S.-China relationship. There were Democrats included in the original formation, but they dropped out, which McCarthy criticized them for.
The task force recommendations could influence the agricultural trade relationship between the two countries because trade is typically more robust when the relations with China are solid. The Hagstrom Report quotes a senior Democratic aide who says those on that side of the political fence are “very cognizant of the need to hold China accountable for its actions.”
However, the aide says, “To that extent, this is going to be the Trump Administration’s scapegoat for its utter failure, we are not going to go along with any of that.”
Aaron Bertels with Crossroads Marketing talks about the trade issues that many are talking about, Movement of grain how that has been effected by COVID. A look at the upcoming WASDE report out next week.
Another limit up day in the livestock…what does that mean for the near term? Relationship between grain & livestock producers in these current times. Will we see $500 Choice boxed beef? We go through these feelings every year with market movements, just this year its escalated feelings. We are socially isolated on a regular day in ag, but as it continues the feels are getting more stressed. China Phase One…where do we sit? WASDE report due out on Tuesday.