Tag Archives: Fontanelle Final Bell

 

  • Continuation of the status quo
  • Many wondering where the stock is in China
  • Will their buying keep up in the short term?
  • Harvest progress is moving along quickly
  • South America forecast is getting better
  • Black Sea region is still tough
  • Basis in the country
  • Is the down trend in the cattle going to turn around?
  • How is cash holding up?
  • COF on Friday

 

  • Wheat is the most confusing market right now
  • Light buyer support for soybeans
  • Dry weather concerns
  • Corn isn’t really expensive…yet beans have some good value
  • Cattle had some struggles in the trade, falling off the cliff today
  • Make sure you remember what kind of year this is-does that set the stage for 2021
  • Does the downtrend in cattle set the tone for cash this week?

 

Grains continue to move higher being lead Thursday by wheat. Corn has almost all of it’s 2020/2021 contracts above the $4 mark. Soybeans continue to see strong soybean demand. Jeff Peterson, Heartland Farm Partners, discusses the fundamentals of what continues to drive the grain market higher. Of course with a market that doesn’t seem to want to stop has producers asking questions of what to do about selling into the cash market.

Peterson also addresses tough questions about China and the role their current strong demand is playing into this current market. Part of that discussion includes keying in on why the early week export inspections may be more important now than the weekly export sales report.

Cath the full conversation with Peterson here:

  • Wheat up big again
  • All the grains up again
  • How can we interrupt negative numbers on the deferred contracts?
  • All of this related to weather globally
  • We are looking at potential serious weather issues
  • China, even on holiday, jumped into the markets to make purchases
  • Does China panic in weather markets both here & in South America
  • Feeder cattle continue to struggle

  • Recap the corn and soybean markets for the week.
  • Why have the markets been so volatile this week?
  • Did you see any surprises from the quarterly stocks report?
  • Do you think the smaller stocks were because of more demand or smaller crop?
  • Is there a way to forecast possible prices based on the information from the quarterly stock’s numbers?
  • What are possible corn and soybean prices based on the latest information?
  • How is the weather looking in South America?
  • What are the factors the corn and soybean markets will be focused on going forward?
  • What are your thoughts on basis going forward? Sell off combine or hold?

Thursday brought about another strong day of gains in the grain market. Soybeans continue to hold well over the $10 mark. Looking at a continuous chart that puts soybeans back towards highs not seen since early 2018 before the US China trade war kicked off. Kyle Bumsted with Allendale Inc. believes this now give farmers a unique opportunity to go back and visit their marketing strategy. 2019 has been a year that farmers have seen plenty of government payments, but now the market seems to be giving opportunity to market at a profitable level.

Bumsted also gives strong insight into why the feeder cattle corn spread may be nearing it’s useful end. Rather feeders are looking at the cash difference between the fats getting on the truck and the lightweights coming off the truck. Finally there is the lean hog market that really caught fire on Thursday. Could it be starting to get top heavy or is there more room to go higher?

You can hear all of Bumstead’s comments here:

Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell on a turn around Tuesday in the ag commodity markets. Zuzolo highlights that today’s pullback was bound to happen sooner rather than later. Still in the soybean complex it’s good to see the July contract holding the strong physiological level of ten dollars. Now the question becomes can the current run of Chinese demand and South American production workout to allow the rally to continue. Zuzolo also breaks down the current buys being made by China and how they compare in the big picture of the Phase One Trade Deal.

In the second half of the program Zuzolo talks funds in the ag commodities and livestock. Cattle may be starting to hit overbought levels despite the fact cattle seasonally are in a slump after the Labor Day holiday. The conversation ends on the importance African Swine Fever still has on the markets.

Catch the full show here:

Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing joins the Fontanelle Final Bell as the markets get back to work after the Labor Day holiday. In the grains they essentially picked up where they left off last week. Soybeans notched their 11th consecutive higher close. The rally partially driven by strong Chinese demand. However Hudson is cautious to ride the Chinese demand bull to far because China has spoken for a lot of grain, but has not taken a lot of delivery yet.

Hudson also covers how the current moisture and cool temperatures could impact markets. Overall he expects the impact to be negligible as the moisture may be a little to late and frosty temperatures not too damaging.

Catch the full episode here: