U.S. beef exports posted one of the best months on record in November, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. November was also a strong month for pork exports, which already surpassed the full-year volume and value records set in 2019.
November beef exports totaled 115,300 metric tons, up six percent from a year ago and the largest since July 2019. Export value climbed eight percent year-over-year to $707.5 million. November beef muscle cut exports were the third largest on record at 91,300 metric tons, valued at $630 million.
November pork export volume was steady year-over-year at 258,800 metric tons, with value down two percent to $697.5 million. Although China/Hong Kong remained the largest destination for U.S. pork in November, momentum continued to build in other markets, including Japan, Mexico and Central America.
January-November pork exports set new annual records for both volume and value. Pork muscle cut exports also shattered previous annual records, increasing 18 percent year-over-year to 2.29 million metric tons, valued at $6 billion.
As expected the quarterly hogs and pigs report did show a slight drop in the US hog herd. This came as a result of steady slaughter and less gilt retention for breeding.
The full report breaks down as the United States inventory of all hogs and pigs on December 1, 2020 was 77.5 million head. This was down 1% from December 1, 2019, and down 1% from September 1, 2020.
US breeding hog inventory currently sits at 6.28 million head, down 3% from last year, and down 1% from the previous
US market hog inventory, at 71.2 million head, was down 1% from last year, and down 1% from last quarter.
The September-November 2020 pig crop, at 35.0 million head, was down 1% from 2019. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.16 million head, down 1% from 2019. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50% of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.05 for the September-November period,
compared to 11.09 last year.
Livestock market analyst Kyle Bumsted believes the report is positive at face value. However there was several revisions that need to be watched closely.
Catch the full report here: https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/rj430453j/7d279j76f/g445d5751/hgpg1220.pdf
Arlan Suderman, Chief Economist for Stone X, joins the Fontanelle Final Bell midweek just ahead of the December WASDE report. Suderman highlights that the December report from USDA and World Outlook Board is usually a boring report. Being 2020 though December has the possibility to hold both bullish and bearish surprises. Ending stocks will be key to the report. Especially for soybeans with most analyst estimates ahead of the report showing soybeans below 170 million bushels.
Outside of the WASDE report traders continue to closely watch South American weather. Suderman brings to date the latest weather patterns over Brazil and Argentina. Along with the reality of what a dry pattern actually looks like in South America.
Suderman briefly touches on why the US Dollar Index is climbing with the Euro falling. Brexit is about to go from nice to messy and it’s not good for the Euro.
The final topic lands in livestock with Suderman highlighting China’s latest high rise hog farms. On the outside these hog farms appear to be a solid step in increasing Chinese pork production. However this system could have an Achilles heel given the tight concentration of hogs and the high pathological movement of African Swine Fever.
You can listen to the entire Fontanelle Final Bell here: