The outlook for the United States farm economy depends on the implementation of new trade agreements and the evolution of animal and human disease outbreaks.
The University of Missouri Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute reports that while net farm income increases in 2020, under a baseline assumption of continued trade friction with China, other indicators of the health of the farm economy are not as positive. Projections show that with an assumed return to normal planting and growing weather in 2020, there will be an increase in projected area, yields and supplies and lower prices for corn and soybeans in the 2020/21 marketing year.
With trend yields, 2020 corn production increases to 15 billion bushels, putting downward pressure on prices, which are projected to average $3.57 per bushel. With soybeans, an increase in production drops prices to $8.48 per bushel, before considering the possible impacts of the “Phase 1” trade agreement. Additionally, potential African swine fever impacts, along with the impact of COVID-19, could change the farm economy in 2020, as well.
How do the corn and soybean markets look to you?
Where were the markets last year at this time?
Why did the Corona Virus put so much pressure on the markets?
Do you think we have seen the worst of the Corona Virus?
What is the market going to be focused on going forward?
March Quarterly Stocks and Prospective Planting at the end of March
Spring Weather forecasts (Prevent Plant)
Corn – Exports and Ethanol Demand
Soybeans – Export Demand
How does the US weather look over the next couple of months?
How much prevent plant do you think there will be?
How does the corn export demand look?
How does the ethanol demand look currently?
Cornavirus…that’s the big thing effecting markets. Corn market & producer pricing. They need to make that decision TODAY with first notice day tomorrow. Same thing happened in September & December. Cash Pressure. Fear of demand is what’s killing the livestock today. The paring of the stock market and the cattle market. Oversupply hogs…waiting for China to buy hogs. Interconnectivity throughout the world.
Demand vs. Supply. Coronavirus continues. THIS WEEK’S WEATHER IN THE HARD RED WHEAT BELT REMAINING DROUGHT-STRICKEN FOR WESTERN & WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS, THE ACREAGE REPORT TODAY BEING UPDATED, & THE FRENCH WHEAT CROP CONDITIONS, WHEAT REMAINS OUR MAJOR PRICE-LEADER FOR FUNDAMENTALLY-RELATED/CURRENCY-RELATED SHORT-COVERING A bright spot is the cattle market.